Birding Planet Earth – American Birding Association

Fifty Years Later

How far we’ve come! In 1974, Stuart Keith, then the planet’s leading lister, compiled a massive 14-page analysis of the state of world birding, which he called our “fastest growing phenomenon.” The article appeared in the July/Aug. 1974 Birding (vol. 6, no. 4), edited by Jim Tucker, on pp. 203–216, and was titled “Birding Planet Earth: A World Overview.” Keith, who was ABA President at the time, looked at the idea of international birding, raised some of the challenges inherent in overseas travel, and calculated—with the focus of a CPA—how many birds a hypothetical “Mozart” birder could see in a lifetime.

In Feb. 2000, Phoebe Snetsinger, then the world’s leading lister and someone I knew, wrote an update to Keith’s wonderful piece measuring the advances in the intervening quarter century, but also predicting that the future of international birding might not be as bright due to habitat destruction and extinction. This piece, titled “Birding Planet Earth: Twenty-five Years Later,” appeared in the Feb. 2000 Birding (vol. 31, no. 1), on pp. 50–55, an issue edited by Paul Baicich, with Paul Green serving as the ABA’s Executive Director.

Snetsinger also made some predictions on the increased limits to life lists based on advances in taxonomy and bird knowledge. Along the way, she passed the baton to me, today’s leading lister, in a prescient move that brings us to this article.

Birding Planet Earth: A World Overview

Stuart Keith’s magnum opus on world birding is a very personal account. At the birth of the ABA and the advent of international birding, the playing field was generally small, white, and male. Most likely, Keith personally knew most of the birders he wrote about and had a good understanding of their interests and capabilities. Making predictions on potential birding achievements was straightforward, as he was talking about his friends and colleagues.

He explains that the goal of seeing half of the world’s birds (4,300 out of 8,600) was proposed by none other than Roger Tory Peterson. Keith describes it as a “possible lifetime goal,” one that took him 26 years to achieve. Keith was the first person to reach half, accomplishing the feat with a Gray Hornbill, which has since been split, in India in 1973, on a Bird Bonanzas tour led by Ben King.

Another area where Keith’s exposition shows its age is his discussion of impossible birds. He notes that “no amount of money will buy you a look at a Cinereous Tinamou, Violaceous Quail-Dove, or Rufous Antpitta.” Of course, all are easy to see today. He also predicts that no one will ever see all the world’s tinamous. I’ve already seen 44 of 46 species without specifically trying.

Keith hypothesizes that a birding “Mozart,” a prodigy who dedicates his entire life to birds at the exclusion of everything else, could see 8,000 of the world’s 8,600 species, or 93% of the world’s avifauna at the time. Oddly, he does not analyze why he chose the number 600 of impossible species. Coming back to Earth, he then predicts that “7,000 [81%] is just within the capabilities of the ordinary mortal.”

One hurdle that Keith highlights is the inability to identify difficult groups, noting that “[t]here is no man alive who can tell apart in the field all the endless numbers of look-alike tyrannulets in South America.” With a better understanding of their ranges, plumages, postures, habits, habitats, and vocalizations, tyrannulet identification has become relatively straightforward.

In the Feb. 2000 Birding (vol. 31, no. 1), Phoebe Snetsinger, then the world’s leading lister, wrote an update to Keith’s article titled “Birding Planet Earth: Twenty-five Years Later.” Now, the author of this article, the first person in the history of birding to cross the 10,000 bird barrier and the world’s #1 lister, has contributed his own entry to the “Birding Planet Earth” series. ABA members can access all previous issues of Birding in the Birding Magazine Archives.

Much of Keith’s article is devoted to analyzing where the birds live and what it would take to find them. Again, age shows its face in the analysis, as he notes that, to bird Madagascar “effectively,” you would need to import your own 4×4 vehicle, camping equipment, and canned food! I solo-birded Madagascar in 1977 and 1978, a few years after Keith’s article, had few logistical obstacles, and saw most of the endemic birds. He notes that Uganda is off-limits, and gives Colombia a 3/10 rating for birdability. Quite rightly, he observes that the lack of field guides and local experts and serious logistical challenges would dramatically limit the number of birds that could be seen in the tropics.

Keith then moves on to the cost of international travel, noting that several people had gotten around the problem: Bob Smart, who had volunteered for a two-year teacher exchange in East Africa; Peter Alden, who “got a job as a tour director for Massachusetts Audubon”; and Kenn Kauffman, who “had just managed to see an incredible 671 species in one year with virtually no money.” Keith then offers a couple of solutions for the international birding finance/time challenge, including working for the U.S. State Department or a multinational company.

Keith ends by focusing on the social element of birding, noting that, “Birding is a social activity . . .” and “also a cooperative venture.” He says that he never birds alone if he can help it.

Birding Planet Earth: Twenty-five Years Later

Phoebe Snetsinger, who in her time was the top world lister and a person who set high standards for birding excellence, wrote a quarter-century update to Keith’s piece, which appeared in Birding’s Feb. 2000 issue a few months after her tragic death in 1999. (For more on her incredible life and achievements, see Birding on Borrowed Time, her autobiography, published posthumously in 2003 by the ABA.)

Snetsinger describes Keith’s 1974 article as a “masterpiece,” and encourages all birders to read it “for historical perspective as well as sheer enjoyment.” Snetsinger,who was filled with a love of birds and birding, notes eloquently what birding entails:

The same prerequisites will always pertain: fascination with the subject, awe in the face of our planet’s richness and diversity, dedication to one’s pursuit, setting of goals and satisfaction in achieving them, willingness to accept challenges and set-backs, and recognition of our own limits and the endless nature of our quests.

She then analyzes Keith’s conclusions, starting with the world bird list. In Keith’s time, the world bird list was relatively stable at about 8,600. In the intervening 25 years, the tide had changed, and an era of species splitting had begun. By 2000, the list had increased to about 10,000. That puts the average net increase in species from 1974 to 2000 of about 54 birds per year.

In 1998, Snetsinger found her 4,900th (out of 9,800) bird in the company of the famous Ben King in Java, Indonesia, a country that Keith did not explicitly mention in his calculations. Interestingly, Indonesia is my #1 country for potential lifers, with some 225 still to be found.

With the prospect of future list instability, Snetsinger embraced the idea of a percentage that could be used to compare lists from different times. She noted that Keith’s realistic goal of 70% had been reached by nine birders on the 1998 ABA List Report. She noted that her own 84%+ list exceeded Keith’s real-world maximum (81%), and turned her gaze to what that true limit might be.

She settled on 90% as a level that would be “virtually impossible for anyone.” Even the mythical Mozart, Snetsinger mused, could only dream of seeing 90%, if “everything in our prodigy’s entire life” went right. In her analysis of how to get to the top, she was convinced that the “master planners” would have an advantage.

Snetsinger outsourced the planning in many cases to a bird-tour company, with considerable success. Not only did bird tours reduce the stress of international travel, but they also allowed her to focus on the birds rather than logistics. Nonetheless, Snetsinger was a well-known planner whose bird-identification preparation was legendary.

One of Snetsinger’s concerns was that she was living in a golden age of birding, in which the great increases in knowledge were peaking just before the negative effects of habitat destruction and extinction took a toll on our exhilarating avocation.

World Birding Today

Where do we stand now? Clearly the Information Age of the Anthropocene Era has brought huge changes to all our lives. We have access to information now that our predecessors never imagined. We are interconnected to such an extent that I can know what a friend is doing, thinking, or feeling on the other side of the world in real time. The collective efforts of tens of thousands of biologists, conservationists, citizen scientists, and random observers are available for my perusal. My Merlin app can hold data on most of the world’s birds in my hand, and, with internet access, to the rest of the world’s birds.

The author leads a Bird Bonanzas tour in eastern Congo, the home of 16 lost birds, with clients Arnold Small (the ABA’s second President), Norm Chesterfield, Joel Abramson, and Martin Edwards in 1978. Mount Kahuzi is visible in the background. Photo by © John Gerhart.

The state of birding has never been better. And I firmly believe that, despite all the challenges of our times, things will only improve in the future. The two pillars upon which this success is founded are democratization and technology. By democratization, I am referring to the extraordinary evolution of our pastime from a “good-old-boys club” in the 1970s to an inclusive community of all people with a shared interest in birds. Admittedly, challenges remain.

This process has been played out both in the U.S. and abroad. Colombia, the most speciose country in the world, is one of many with a vibrant, young, and diverse birding/ornithological community that has vastly increased the knowledge of and concern for birds. Whereas 50 years ago the leading birders were almost exclusively American or English, the latest iGoTerra rankings of top world listers includes seven nationalities among the top 13. All are over 9,400 species (85%).

The explosion of information, aided by ever-accelerating advances in technology, has spawned an army of local experts, many of whom have written excellent books that aggregate our growing avian knowledge. While Keith effused about the great Ben King, who was the best bird guide in Asia, there are now hundreds of local guides, each of whom possesses a better understanding of their local birds than King could have dreamed of.

Access to the internet gives each birder the power to know almost everything about birds. Scientific papers are now published online, and discoveries are often shared with lightning speed so that they can be confirmed right away. The arrival of vagrants is shared in minutes so that one-day wonders can now be seen by many.

Hundreds of young Colombians attend a recent bird fair in Manizales. Photo courtesy of Peter Kaestner.

In the past 25 years, this increase of knowledge has changed international tour companies, which now benefit from the local expertise. Travelers today have loads of choices, from full-service international tour operators to local companies to individual local guides. As a result, international tours are even more successful in seeing the birds of the destination, in a manner that fits the needs and desires of their clients.

In addition, local guides have caught the world birding bug and are spreading their guiding wings. As I write this, Ansar Khan, a talented local guide from northern India, is guiding a client in Vietnam! (Khan was my local guide when I led a tour in northern India in 2020, and his father, Bholu Khan, guided my brother Hank and me in Bharatpur, India, in 1982.) Carlos Bocos, a Spaniard who became one of the most sought-after guides in Indonesia, recently joined Rockjumper Worldwide Birding Adventures, which allows him to share his talents leading tours all over the world.

It is possible to travel alone, but I believe that supporting local guides, either directly or through a tour company, is essential to enhancing birds’ value in the communities where they live.

One thing that Keith never specified was what checklist he used for his benchmark of 8,600 species, although he did note that the number was a result of an era of lumping. Even in the mid-1970s, there were three competing world checklists: a handy one by Buck Edwards, a scholarly one by the American Museum of Natural History, and a popular one by Jim Clements. ABA members used the Clements list as their world standard, and the eBird taxonomy of today is a descendant of Clement’s efforts.

More recently, there has been a proliferation of world bird lists, including the International Ornithological Union World Bird List, the eBird/Clements Checklist of Birds of the World, the BirdLife International Illustrated Checklist of the Birds of the World, the Handbook of the Birds of the World, and the Howard and Moore Complete Checklist of the Birds of the World. But wait! As I write this, the Working Group on Avian Checklists that was tasked with harmonizing the world’s major checklists is finishing the job. Indeed, 2025 should be the year when the International Ornithological Union finally promulgates its “Avilist.” So, how many birds are there? The two major lists, the International Ornithological Union and eBird/Clements, are just around 11,000 species. I expect that the harmonized list will be somewhere around 11,000, at least until the next round of splits keeps it growing.

In 2023, I proved that seeing 90% of 11,000, which yields 9,900, is possible, reaching the goal in Java, Indonesia, the same island where Snetsinger got her 50% milestone bird.

Mozart

So, having surpassed Snetsinger’s 90% limit, what is possible?

There are living today several people who are on track to see well over 90% of the world’s birds. Ross Gallardy has seen more than 8,000 and he is only in his mid-30s. A professional logistician and superb field birder, he has planned his way around the world, efficiently cleaning up with an amazing consistency. In addition, there is a whole cohort of extraordinary young birders who work for tour companies and who regularly bird the best hotspots around the world. Snetsinger reported 25 years ago that nine people had seen over 70% of the world’s birds. Today, there are at least 74 birders who have reached that milestone, 21 of whom have seen more than 80%, and one who has recorded 90% (eBird and iGoTerra data).

So, there are people in the world, like Gallardy, who have the skills and passion to find the world’s birds. How many could they find? I decided when considering this assignment to do the opposite of what Keith did when he tried to add up the birds in all the regions of the world. My idea was to work backward by taking a list and subtracting how many birds would be impossible.

I quickly ran into a quagmire. Several organizations have put out lists of lost species, iGoTerra “blockers,” birds with no eBird records, and extinct species. The fundamental problem is that, until you agree on what is extinct and what is not, you can’t have a definitive list. Therefore, you cannot start analyzing the chances of seeing a particular bird. To simplify things, I decided to use a list of “Lost Birds” (www.searchforlostbirds.org) created by American Bird Conservancy, Re:wild, and BirdLife International. We’ll examine what it would take to find them.

There are three elements to why a bird is difficult to encounter. The first is that it is extinct. The second is that it lives in an inaccessible place. And the third is that it is just hard to see.

The definition of extinct has evolved over the years. Organizations used to employ a standard of 50 years without evidence, but that yardstick was ineffective because many species were initially discovered and described, and then forgotten. When I lived in Colombia in the late 1980s, I “rediscovered” several species that were easily seen at their type locality. Recently, the working definition of extinction has been modified to reflect a reasonable certainty that the animal is extinct based on the efforts to find it. The “Lost Birds” list uses a metric of a bird not being seen in the past 10 years.

A lot of island birds are certainly extinct, like the Dodo of the Indian Ocean. The Passenger Pigeon is an unusual example of a widespread continental bird that is unequivocally gone. On the other hand, how about the Ivory-billed Woodpecker? Is it extinct or not? According to the standards of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, we’re not sure, so it must be on a list of birds that our Mozart could see.

There are birds that could be extant but found only in inaccessible places. The birds of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo are a good example. Sixteen species on the “Lost Birds” list live there. Goodies like Chapin’s Mountain-Babbler, Yellow-legged Weaver, and Lendu Crombec jump to mind as species ripe for rediscovery, if we only had a chance to get there. Some birds live in areas with access controlled so closely that it would take an extraordinary effort to see them. The Kākāpō, a wonderful, terrestrial parrot found in New Zealand, is not seeable, unless you work for New Zealand’s Department of Conservation. The same goes for the Laysan Teal and Heard Island Shag, two endemics found on islands tourists do not frequent.

Gorgeted Puffleg is a species birders cannot see at this time, as its territory is too dangerous for travelers. Photo by © Carlos Mario Wagner-Wagner.

Even in the bird mecca of Colombia, there are two puffleg hummingbirds that live in areas controlled by guerrillas. One of the areas is so hot that not even Colombians dare to go there. So, don’t expect to see a Gorgeted Puffleg anytime soon, unless there is a resolution to the conflict with the ELN.

In the past, China and Cuba were off–limits, and today Iran and Venezuela are no-gos for U.S. citizens. I expect to go back to Venezuela in the future, because there are a couple dozen birds I want to see there. Could Iran eventually change and become accessible for a former U.S. State Department employee? I doubt it. So, it looks like I’ll never complete the ground-jay genus Podoces. Endemic-rich Somalia and Democratic Republic of the Congo are both unsafe, and the Wamena Valley of Indonesian New Guinea, a hotspot with several fabulous birds, is now too unstable to visit, but I hope to get there someday.

The final category is birds that are just plain hard. For years, the ground-cuckoos of the world, with the exception of Coral-billed in Southeast Asia, were unknown in life. Indeed, the Bornean and Sumatran ground-cuckoos had not been encountered in decades. The Scaled and Red-billed in the Amazon were a little better known, but still considered impossible to see reliably. That has all changed in the past couple of years, thanks to a Brazilian named Luis Morais, a ground-cuckoo whisperer. He has completely changed the playbook for these shy species in Brazil. In addition, both the Bornean and Sumatran ground-cuckoos are relatively straightforward now. Ten years ago, who would have thought?

Some birds once considered mythical, or just plain impossible, like Sichuan Partridge and Bornean Peacock-Pheasant, are now coming to photographic hides so that anyone can see them. Keith’s “impossible” Rufous Antpitta has been split into 12 species, all of which I have seen easily.

Another kind of challenge is physical. To see a Blue-bearded Helmetcrest and Santa Marta Wren, you have to climb about 9,000 feet to reach the habitat at 10,000 feet elevation. Not too difficult, as long as you are fit. I lost 50 pounds to get in shape for it! There are a lot of birds that require a bit of a hike to see. Among them are Seram Thrush, Madanga, Santo Starling, Snow Mountain Robin, Sira Barbet, and Sira Curassow. All that said, I’ll assume that all “hard-to-see” species can be seen. Mozart works out.

Let’s take a quick look at the Lost Birds list. The version I downloaded in Feb. 2025 had 142 species, 22 of which had already been found. Several of the birds are absolutely lost and almost certainly extinct: Eskimo Curlew, Slender-billed Curlew, Cozumel Thrasher, Bachman’s Warbler, and five Hawaiian honeycreepers.

On the other hand, many birds on the list are clearly not lost. Excellent examples are the three endemic species found in the Foja Mountains of Indonesian New Guinea. They are Foja (Carol’s) Honeyeater, Golden-fronted Bowerbird, and Bronze Parotia, and they were all seen when Bruce Beehler visited the mountains. I’m sure another visit to these remote and essentially inaccessible mountains would find them again.

That leaves 96 lost birds with some chance. Of these, 46 are considered endangered and will be much less likely to be found. This means that 70 (24 + 46) birds are probably not seeable out of about 11,000, or 0.6% unseeable and 99.4% seeable. We’re not working with three significant figures of accuracy, and I don’t want to be too rough on Mozart, so I’ll round it to 99%. I’m confident this is a good ceiling, but if there are enough splits of easy birds (20,000 has been posited) then—never mind significant figures—I’ll have to enforce the 99.4%!

Threats to Birds

Before we go on, I want to address some of the threats to birds that so concerned Phoebe Snetsinger. I am an eternal optimist, but these are serious threats. One of the most insidious is the cage-bird trade in Southeast Asia. Scores of species are at risk, and several island forms have already disappeared. Stopping what is seen as a cultural tradition is a heavy lift, but an essential task. A related concern is international bird trafficking, especially of parrots.

Another huge problem, especially on small islands, is invasive species. New Zealand is a prime example of a landscape overrun by exotic animals that are wreaking havoc. It appears that all of the Stephens Island Wrens were killed by a cat. In the Hawaiian Islands, avian malaria, transmitted by alien mosquitos, is decimating the native avifauna. Eliminating alien species is an enormous challenge, but when it succeeds, it makes a real difference.

Habitat destruction can be a big issue if not addressed. On the other hand, rapid action can save key parts of vulnerable ecosystems, as has been done many times in South America, especially by Fundación Jocotoco and American Bird Conservancy. Habitat destruction is especially worrisome on islands, where entire ecosystems can be wiped out in short order.

Environmental contamination is a major threat. Many effects of man-made chemicals are well known, such as oceanic plastic and persistent organic pollutants, but there are many things we do not know. Will microplastics and pervasive electromagnetic radiation be known as threats to the environment 25 years from now?

Finally, birds face an uncertain future because of climate change. Changes to bird distributions caused by global warming have already been demonstrated, and there will undoubtedly be more in the future. The deadly avian malaria in Hawai‘i is increasing in elevation as temperatures rise, putting more species at risk. Sadly, it appears that the governments of the world do not have the will to avert climate change, so we will have to work to mitigate its effects. Climate change is especially critical for montane birds, who are boxed in as the temperature of their forest habitat increases.

In Closing

The 50 years since Keith’s classic analysis have been an extraordinary time for birds, birders, and birding. The magic of birds has prompted millions of people to create a community that has grown in size, diversity, and competence. Experiencing birds and the people who enjoy them has been an essential joy of my life. If we continue to work together, we can mitigate the threats to birds and ensure that these fabulous creatures continue to inspire and enthrall us for the next half century, and beyond.

The Lost Birds

Here is the list of 24 truly lost birds out of 120 that I predict will not be found by Mozart or any other birder. (I’d be very happy to be proved wrong!)